کار ماهر بدون کارگر

Nimblenewrobotschangeindustry

Drachten theNetherlands

AtthePhilipsElectronicsfactoryonthecoastofChina hundredsofworkersusetheirhandsandspecializedtoolstoassembleelectricshavers. Thatistheoldway.

AtasisterfactoryhereintheDutchcountryside، 128robotarmsdothesameworkwithyoga likeflexibility. Videocamerasguidethemthroughfeatswellbeyondthecapabilityofthemostdexteroushuman.

Onerobotarmendlesslyformsthreeperfectbendsintwoconnectorwiresandslipsthemintoholesalmosttoosmallfortheeyetosee.Thearmsworksofastthattheymustbeenclosedinglasscagestopreventthepeoplesupervisingthemfrombeinginjured.Andtheydoitallwithoutacoffeebreak-threeshiftsaday, 365daysayear.

Alltold، thefactoryherehasseveraldozenworkerspershift، aboutatenthasmanyastheplantintheChinesecityofZhuhai.

Thisisthefuture.Anewwaveofrobots,farmoreadeptthanthosenowcommonlyusedbyautomakersandotherheavymanufacturers,arereplacingworkersaroundtheworldinbothmanufacturinganddistribution. FactoriesliketheonehereintheNetherlandsareastrikingcounterpointtothoseusedbyAppleandotherconsumerelectronicsgiants whichemployhundredsofthousandsoflow skilledworkers.

andquot; Withthesemachines, wecanmakeanyconsumerdeviceintheworld, andquot; saidBinneVisser, whomanagesthePhilipsassemblylineinDrachten.

ManyindustryexecutivesandtechnologyexpertssayPhilipsand#39;sapproachisgaininggroundonAppleand#39;s.EvenasFoxconn,Appleand#39;siPhonemanufacturer,continuestobuildnewplantsandhirethousandsofadditionalworkerstomakesmartphones,itplanstoinstallmorethanamillionrobotswithinafewyearstosupplementitsworkforceinChina.

Foxconnhasnotsaidhowmanyworkerswillbedisplaced.Butitschairman,TerryGou,hasendorsedagrowinguseofrobots. Speakingofhismorethanonemillionemployees hesaidinJanuary accordingtotheofficialXinhuanewsagency: andquot; Ashumanbeingsarealsoanimals,tomanageonemillionanimalsgivesmeaheadache.andquot;

Thefallingcostsandgrowingsophisticationofrobotshaverenewedadebateoverhowquicklyjobswillbelost.Thisyear,ErikBrynjolfssonandAndrewMcAfee,economistsattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,madethecaseforarapidtransformation. andquot; Thepaceandscaleofthisencroachmentintohumanskillsisrelativelyrecentandhasprofoundeconomicimplications andquot theywroteintheirbook andquot; RaceAgainsttheMachine.andquot;

Intheirminds,theadventoflow-costautomationforetellschangesonthescaleoftherevolutioninagriculturaltechnologyoverthelastcentury,whenfarmingemploymentintheUnitedStatesfellfrom40percentoftheworkforcetoabout2percent.

ButBranFerren, aveteranroboticistandindustrialproductdesigneratAppliedMindsinGlendale, کالیفرنیا, arguesthattherearestillsteepobstacles. andquot؛ Ihadanearlynaiveteaboutuniversalrobotsthatcouldjustdoanything andquot؛ او گفت. andquot; Youhavetohavepeoplearoundanyway.Andpeopleareprettygoodatfiguringout,howdoIwiggletheradiatorinorslipthehoseon? Andthesethingsarestillhardforrobotstodo.andquot;

Beyondthetechnicalchallengesliesresistancefromunionizedworkersandcommunitiesworriedaboutjobs.EventhoughrisinglaborandtransportationcostsinAsiaandfearsofintellectualpropertytheftarenowbringingsomeworkbacktotheWest,theascensionofrobotsmaymeanfewerjobswillbecreated.

AttheFlextronicssolarpanelfactoryinMilpitas, southofSanFrancisco, abannerproclaims, andquot; BringingJobsandamp; ManufacturingBacktoCalifornia! andquot; Yetintheplant therearerobotseverywhereandfewhumanworkers. Alloftheheavyliftingandalmostallofthepreciseworkisdonebyrobots.Thehumanworkerstrimexcessmaterial,threadwiresandscrewinahandfuloffasteners.

Suchadvancesinmanufacturingarealsotransformingothersectorsthatemploymillionsofworkers.Oneisdistribution,whererobotsthatzoomatthespeedoftheworldand#39;sfastestsprinterscanstore,retrieveandpackgoodsforshipmentfarmoreefficientlythanpeople.

Rapidimprovementinvisionandtouchtechnologiesisputtingawidearrayofmanualjobswithintheabilitiesofrobots.Forexample,Boeingand#39;swide-bodycommercialjetsarenowrivetedautomaticallybygiantmachinesthatmoverapidlyandpreciselyovertheskinoftheplanes.

AndatEarthboundFarmsinCalifornia fournewlyinstalledrobotarmswithcustomizedsuctioncupsswiftlyplaceclamshellcontainersoforganiclettuceintoshippingboxes. EachrobotreplacestwotofiveworkersatEarthbound.

Aرباتمسابقهطول می کشدشکل

AtanautomationtradeshowlastyearinChicago,RonPotter,thedirectorofroboticstechnologyatanAtlantaconsultingfirmcalledFactoryAutomationSystems,offeredanexampleofaroboticmanufacturingsystemthatinitiallycost$250,000andreplacedtwomachineoperators,eachearning$50,000ayear. Overthe15 yearlifeofthesystem، .5millioninlaborandproductivitysavings themachinesyielded$ 3.

GovernmentofficialsandindustryexecutivesintheUnitedStatesarguethateveniffactoriesareautomated theystillareavaluablesourceofjobs. IftheUnitedStatesdoesnotcompeteforadvancedmanufacturinginindustrieslikeconsumerelectronics itcouldloseproductengineeringanddesignaswell. علاوه بر این، eventhoughblue collarjobswillbelost، moreefficientmanufacturingwillcreateskilledjobsindesigning، operatingandservicingtheassemblylines.

Androbotmakerssaytheirindustryitselfcreatesjobs.AreportcommissionedbytheInternationalFederationofRoboticslastyearfoundthat150,000peoplearealreadyemployedbyroboticsmanufacturersworldwide.

ButAmericanandEuropeandominanceinthenextgenerationofmanufacturingisuncertain. andquot; WhatIseeisthattheChinesearegoingtoapplyrobots، بیش از حد, andquot; saidFransvanHouten, Philipsand #39; schiefexecutive. andquot; Thewindowofopportunitytobringmanufacturingbackisbeforethathappens.andquot;

Aسریع ترمجمعخط

AtTeslaMotorsinFremont، کالیفرنیا، ontheedgeofSiliconValley، asmanyaseightrobotsperformaballetaroundeachvehicleasitstopsateachstationalongtheproductionlineforjustfiveminutes. Therobotarmsseemhumanwhentheyreachovertoastandandchangetheirandquot; handandquot; toperformadifferenttask. Whilethemanyrobotsinautofactoriestypicallyperformonlyonefunction aTeslarobotmightdouptofour: جوش, نصب, bondingandinstallingacomponent. Ultimatelyasmanyas83TeslaSelectricluxurysedansadaywillbeproducedatthefactory.Whenthecompanyaddsasportutilityvehiclenextyear,itwillbebuiltonthesameassemblyline,oncetherobotsarereprogrammed.

Teslaand #39; sfactoryistinybutrepresentsasignificantbetonflexiblerobots, onethatcouldbeamodelfortheindustry. Andothersarealreadythinkingbigger.

HyundaiandBeijingMotorsrecentlycompletedamammothfactoryoutsideBeijingthatcanproduceamillionvehiclesayearusingmorerobotsandfewerpeoplethanthebigfactoriesoftheircompetitorsandwiththesameflexibilityasTeslaand#39;s,saidPaulChau,anAmericanventurecapitalistatWIHarper.

Humansand #39;تغییرنقش

InthedecadesincehebeganworkingasawarehousemaninTolleson,Arizona,JoshGraveshasseenhowautomationsystemscanmakeworkeasierbutalsocreatenewstressandinsecurity.ThegiantfacilitywhereheworksdistributesdrygoodsforKrogersupermarkets.

Mr.Graves 29, wenttoworkinthewarehouserightoutofhighschool. Thedemandingjobrequiredliftingheavyboxesandthehourswerelong.

TodayMr.Gravesdrivesasmallforklift-likemachine.Hewearsheadsetsandisinstructedbyacomputerizedvoiceonwheretogointhewarehousetogatherorstoreproducts.AcentralizedcomputertheworkerscallTheBraindictatestheirspeed.Managersknowexactlywhattheworkersdo,tothepreciseminute.

Becauseworkersaredoinglessphysicallabor,therearefewerinjuries,saidRomeAloise,aTeamstersvicepresidentinNorthernCalifornia.Becauseacomputersetsthepace,thestressisnowmorepsychological.

Severalyearsago,Mr.Gravesand#39;swarehouseinstalledaGermansystemthatautomaticallystoresandretrievescasesoffood.Thatledtotheeliminationof106jobs,or20percentoftheworkforce.

NowKrogerplanstobuildahighlyautomatedwarehouseinTolleson.

andquot; Wedonand #39; thaveaproblemwiththemachinescoming, andquot; Mr.Gravestoldcityofficials. andquot; ButtellKrogerwedonand#39;twanttolosethesejobsinourcity.andquot;

Somejobsarestillbeyondthereachofautomation:constructionjobsthatrequireworkerstomoveinunpredictablesettingsandperformdifferenttasksthatarenotrepetitive;assemblyworkthatrequirestactilefeedbacklikeplacingfiberglasspanelsinsideairplanes,boatsorcars;andassemblyjobswhereonlyalimitedquantityofproductsaremadeorwheretherearemanyversionsofeachproduct,requiringexpensivereprogrammingofrobots.

Butthatlistisgrowingshorter.

InanindustrialneighborhoodinPaloAlto, کالیفرنیا, arobotarmedwithelectronicandquot; eyesandquot; andasmallscoopandsuctioncupsrepeatedlypicksupboxesanddropsthemontoaconveyorbelt.

TherobotusesatechnologypioneeredinMicrosoftand #39; sKinectmotionsensingsystemforitsXboxvideogamesystem.

SuchrobotswillputautomationwithinrangeofcompanieslikeFederalExpressandUnitedParcelServicethatnowemploytensofthousandsofworkersdoingsuchtasks.

Thestart upbehindtherobot,IndustrialPerceptionInc.ofMenloPark,California، willwinitsfirstcontractifitsmachinecanmoveoneboxeveryfourseconds. Theengineersareconfidentthattherobotwillsoondomuchbetterthanthat pickingupandsettingdownoneboxpersecond.

andquot; Weand #39; reonthecuspofcompletelychangingmanufacturinganddistribution, andquot; saidGaryBradski, amachine visionscientistwhoisafounderofIndustrialPerception. andquot;Ithinkitand#39;snotassingularanevent,butitwillultimatelyhaveasbiganimpactastheInternet.andquot;